KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

As expected tropical moisture is moving in and will stay with us into the weekend.  Tomorrow should be the most favorable for showers and thunderstorms with the National Weather Service forecast discussion makes a good argument for high rain chances.  Some storms will produce very heavy downpours, so be on the lookout for some localized street flooding. 

The chance of showers and storms should be on the increase for the rest of this week with best rain chances reserved for Friday into the weekend.  An upper level non-tropical low that is traversing east to west across the Gulf of Mexico will do two things: 1-help to produce a more unstable atmosphere aloft and 2-will sling tropical moisture into the region.  So our best rain chances tomorrow will be along the coastal parishes with a good scattering of storms Friday through Sunday. 

Drier and hotter air should follow next week with a tropical wave or disturbance moving close to us along about Wednesday of next week.  Computer models have caught on to this feature that is currently in the Eastern Caribbean and keep it distinguishable as it heads toward the Gulf next week.  No development is expected in the near term with this feature, but it could make the weather a little more interesting as we head into mid-next week.

Rob Perillo

Drier air should be filtering in at low levels from the east tomorrow while mid-level dryness comes in from the west.  The net result should be lower chances of getting wet for our Tuesday and thus raising afternoon the temperatures into the mid-90s.  An upper low in the Southeast Gulf will drift westward over the next few days and may enhance our rain chances again on Wednesday and/or Thursday but it may stay too far to the south of us. Toward the end of the week and the weekend it looks like another frontal trough may enhance the risk of our afternoon storms, but rain chances should be not much higher than the 40% range.  Steamy conditions will be likely away from the storms with more mid-90s temperatures and heat indices poking into the low 100s for the rest of the week into the weekend.   

Rob Perillo

With dew points in the 70s, it has felt very uncomfortable. Heat indices have been over 100. No relief is in sight as the humidity STICKS around. We will have a chance of showers mainly near the coast and the TX/LA border. Not much will be changing as we go into next week. We will still have a chance to help the drought just a bit.

Enjoy your weekend.

Kari

The forecast is still on track with typical July weather expected over the next week to 10 days.  Rain chances will be confined mostly to the coastal parishes this weekend, but just about anybody will be able get a brief afternoon soaking.  Deeper tropical moisture should move in for Monday and Tuesday so rain chances will jump up on those days.  Scattered showers/storms will settle down for mid-week while a decent looking tropical wave could come in for late in the week into the following weekend to raise our rain chances once again. 

Hopefully the skies will be fair enough during the evening hours so we can see the International Space Station and the Shuttle traversing the skies.  The best sighting opportunity will come Sunday evening.  Unfortunately the trajectories of the shuttle and space station will not allow us to see the shuttle returning to Florida.  If the shuttle will fly any missions outside of going to the space station, we may then get an opportunity to see the plasma stream across our skies.  Check out the NASA site for more information. 

Rob Perillo

Heavy duty showers and thunderstorms lumbered slowly from the north to south this afternoon with rains of 3-5 inches mainly in Lafayette and Iberia Parishes.  The frontal trough to the north put a squeeze on the juicy tropical air mass that has been in place over the area since last weekend.  As previously advertised, the trough should bring some drier air to the region, but the associated surface frontal boundary will get hung up along the coast.  Therefore, scattered storms will stay in the forecast tomorrow into the weekend, especially south of the I-10 corridor.  Lower humidity will be found mainly north of I-10 with almost pleasant weather possible toward Alexandria to Natchez and points north and east this weekend.  Hopefully there will be more of a push to this system, but the latest computer model runs are getting more pessimistic (meaning better rain chances and higher humidity). 

Next week looks, hot, very humid with scattered mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Highs will be pushing the mid-90s with rain chances dropping late next week.  It is July after all! 

In the tropics, it’s mostly quiet.  The upper low by south Florida is getting swept up by our frontal trough and will move into the Atlantic, while a tropical wave in the NW Caribbean has been identified.  In addition, the upper low that has plagued our area has developed more of a mid-level circulation as it drops into the Gulf.  We always keep an eye on frontal troughs and mid-level circulations in the Gulf this time of year.  No development is expected at this time…will update you on this feature tomorrow.

Rob Perillo

After tomorrow, our rain chances should go down as the upper low to the west of us will weaken and get pushed to the south in response to the frontal trough we have been talking about.  Rain chances should begin to go down, but not completely eliminated for Friday and the weekend.  Plus, the humidity should come down a little bit too.  Next week should bring typical summer-like weather with hot and humid conditions accompanied by scattered afternoon showers and storms. 

Tropical moisture abounds and with no weather features to push the upper low out of Texas, we expect more of the same for our Wednesday, Thursday and maybe Friday.  A frontal trough will approach Friday and should take care of the upper low and supply drier more stable air for the weekend.  We can’t rule out showers/storms for the weekend, but chances should be lower and temperatures higher.   Near-term be on the look out for locally heavy downpours mainly during the daytime hours with localized street flooding possible.  Check out the latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center…and for you hard core weather biffs you can get a wealth of information from the discussions. At least we can enjoy below normal daytime highs through the end of the week thanks to the clouds and showers.  Have a happy and safe 4^th.   Rob Perillo

As anticipated, tropical moisture has moved in and taken up residence over the region.  An upper level low that is parked in Eastern Texas will move little over the next few days before eventually dissipating toward the end of the week.  Deep tropical moisture funneled in by this feature will stay with us through at least the end of the week.  Best rain chances will be confined to mainly the daytime hours tomorrow and Wednesday, with activity gradually becoming more scattered in nature toward the weekend when the tail end of a front should give us a temporary push of drier air. 

Locally heavy downpours will be possible over the next few days, but the greatest threat of flooding rains should be confined to SW Louisiana and Southeast Texas tomorrow, and mostly SE Texas on Wednesday.  The National Weather Service has re-issued a Flood Watch for Cameron, Calcasieu and Beauregard Parishes through tomorrow.  It does appear that the on and off drought denting showers and storms may return for a good part of next week. 

Rob Perillo