Tons of tropical moisture from the Western Gulf will be spilling into the region over the next several days giving us a good soaking and perhaps, too much rain. An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave/trough and a weak upper and mid level low located near South Texas will move northward over the next several days pushing high rain chances into Texas and Louisiana. I’m not expecting any rapid tropical development with this feature, nonetheless the tropical moisture will still be capable of producing area-wide rain amounts in the 2-3†range tomorrow and again on Wednesday.  Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts have us hatched in for several days of widespread rains and we may not shake the bulk of the tropical moisture until after Thursday. So be ready for not only soggy conditions, but possibly street flooding or something more in more persistent storm areas. Â
The feature in the Gulf does have some potential for development tomorrow or Wednesday, provided a low level focusing mechanism (i.e. surface low) develops. For that to happen, we would have to see circular bursting on the satellite imagery overnight tonight or tomorrow.Â
Elsewhere in the tropics, a tropical wave about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands shows no signs of development but that could change in about a week. The Bermuda high is displaced unusually far to the south for this time of year so tropical waves in the Atlantic won’t have a chance until they get into the Central Caribbean. Unfortunately with this pattern, whatever develops in the Caribbean in the next week or two will most likely head into the Gulf. Finally, check out our new link to download the pdf of our hurricane tracking guide for your plotting pleasure.Â
Rob Perillo