Our pattern of daytime showers and a few thunderstorms will continue over the next several days and for a good part of next week. If you like highs between 91 and 95, lows near 75 and a 30-40% chance of getting wet each day, you’ll love the forecast through next weekend.Â
One interesting change I’ve noted in the computer models is that the big, hot ridge of high pressure over the western states is expected to build eastward rather than southeastward. The ridge will be flatter and farther north than was forecast in previous days. What does that mean for us? Well we’re not going much hotter for next week, with tropical easterlies keeping the scattered storms in the forecast. This pattern, if it verifies, could lend itself to a more active tropical picture in Central America, the Western Caribbean and perhaps the Southern Gulf of Mexico (or it could mean at least a couple more of Pacific storms near-term). The pattern should evolve in the next week to 14 days, which would be about right considering tropical climatology and the forecast for this year. By mid-August the pattern should spread into the entire Caribbean. Of course, in about 4 weeks we’ll probably be talking about a tropical system per week, so we are inching closer to the heart of the season we dread. Near term, we’ll see if lower surface pressures begin to develop in the vicinity of Central America and the Western Caribbean. Â
On that note, have a good weekend!  Â
Rob Perillo