KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

More “almost hot” and certainly dry weather is on tap over the next few days with the warmest temperatures of the year on tap for Monday and Tuesday.  Hopefully there will be about a 3-5 degree drop in temperatures with more clouds accompanying a weakening frontal boundary on Wednesday.   This front should be a dry one, if it ever makes it here as it should become stationary over the southern Louisiana Parishes.  This front should however, will bring us more clouds and consequently slightly cooler temperatures from Wednesday into the weekend.

Hopefully we’ll see a few disturbances late in the week and perhaps late in the weekend into early next week.  That may translate into a few showers, but right now we’ll keep rain chances 20% or less.  Unfortunately most of us are not only in a “moderate” drought, but we are just about in a severe drought.  As we have mentioned in previous blogs, persistent dry conditions feedback into more dryness and drought, and this disturbing trend is pretty much where we left off last year.  The last significant widespread rain was with Hurricane Rita…outside of closer to normal rains this winter (that weren’t enough), we are pretty much picking up on the drought that we were enthralled in last year.  Let’s hope it doesn’t have to end with another hurricane!

Rob Perillo

Warm and dry weather continues…Expect patchy fog early Saturday morning with partly cloudy skies in the afternoon. Temperatures will once again reach into the mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s. High pressure in the Gulf remains and slowly drifts to the east. The low pressure system that spawned tornadoes in Iowa yesterday is now over the Ohio Valley. With the couplets of high and low pressure over the nation, we will stay breezy for the next few days.

Easter will follow the same pattern of warm and partly cloudy with no changes in the immediate forecast for next week. There will be a slight chance of showers on Thursday night through Saturday as a low moves across the state. Until then highs will climb into the upper 80s.

Enjoy the Easter Weekend! 

Kari Hall

There is little change in our forecast thinking through early next week.  But hopefully a little bit of a change for the mid-latter part of next week.  In the near term, the warmest high pressure ridge of the season will be settling in for this weekend, making for one of the hottest Easters in recent memory.  Expect highs in the mid-upper 80s through Tuesday.

Down the road into early next week, the ridge will shift far enough to the east to allow for a weak frontal boundary to move in from the north.  In addition, there may be a few upper level disturbances toward the latter part of next week.  The bottom line for now is that we will go with small rain chances beginning late Tuesday and then again Thursday and/or Friday.  Probability of precipitation could improve, mainly for late next week.  Keep your fingers crossed!

Rob Perillo    

There is little change in the forecast reasoning over the next several days, with more sunshine and warmer temperatures likely into the weekend.  In the near-term, a weak upper disturbance is producing a few light sprinkles to our north and west, but that’s the best we can hope for during the evening hours.  Skies will clear later tonight, and with nearly calm winds, patchy ground fog will be possible.  Fog could be an issue again tomorrow night.

Highs for the rest of the week will be reaching into the mid-upper 80s with little change in the pattern through Tuesday.  A weak frontal boundary may produce a few scattered showers around the middle part of next week, but I currently don’t put much stock into the prospects of good rains to help our moderate drought situation anytime soon.

Rob Perillo 

 

Ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to suppress most cloud development, and certainly the rain chances over the next several days.  This pattern doesn’t seem to want to change for the next week or so.  We are way behind schedule for rain in 2006, on top of the deficit we saw in 2005…so the drought continues.

Baker

Breezy and warmer weather is on tap for Acadiana for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  A weak trough may produce additional cloud cover Wednesday into Thursday, but it will stay dry.  The only issue that could be a problem would be late night/early morning fog.  For tonight we’ll call it as “patchy ground fog”, and it could be thicker tomorrow night…an updated assessment tonight at 10pm.

 

In addition, we have been upgraded by the U.S. Drought Monitor to a “moderate drought” across most of Acadiana.  Our rainfall has been about half of what it should be so far this year.  In fact, since February 25^th we have seen only .18” of rain in Lafayette.  This is not good news as we head into the hotter months.  Usually multi-month drought conditions persist into to year long events, and year long events are most frequently multi-year events.  Last year most of us were about 20-25 inches below normal (which is roughly 60”/yr).  So it does not look good for the agricultural community until the tropics get going in June/July…and that may be optimistic.  Hopefully there will be a change in the pattern but the outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center are not that encouraging.

 

If I were making the late spring/summer forecast, above normal temperatures and below normal rains would be the call…hopefully we’re wrong!