KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Breezy and cooler weather is on the way as the big storms that missed us carry on into Mississippi and Alabama. Look for mostly sunny conditions for much of this week into the weekend, with the exception of clouds and scattered showers Wednesday night ending very early Thursday.

Temperatures will run 5-10 degrees below normal with highs generally in the 60s with lows dipping down into the lower 40s. We could even see an early Saturday morning low in the upper 30s! The next weather system to give us at least a good chance of rain will come by Tuesday of next week.

Although we almost always see spring temperatures well before the spring equinox, now that it is officially spring as of this afternoon, cooler more February-like weather returns…go figure!

Rob Perillo

Spring storms will welcome us to the season tomorrow. A warm front will lift northward in the morning helping to produce scattered showers early. By early afternoon a cold front will be approaching from the west and a squall line is expected. Computer models are trending to a less severe scenerio than the past few runs but there will be enough lift, moisture, and sheer to produce isolated severe weather. Small hail, strong winds, and heavy rain is expected. Monday evening the storms will push east and skies will begin to clear. Cold Canadian air will settle in by Tuesday and definitely on Wednesday with highs only reaching into the 60s and lows around 40. That is the normal for January. So when spring comes, it will feel like winter. It will be pleasant no matter what season we are in.

Enjoy your week!
Kari Hall

Expect a slight chance of severe thunderstorms for Sunday. Most of us will see scattered showers especially in the afternoon and evening. A stalled frontal boundry will lift north as a warm front, bringing in more moisture and convection. Upper level dynamics are favorable for thunderstorm development in north-central Texas and north Louisiana. Monday morning will be our best chance for thunderstorms as a squall line moves through in association with a cold front. Temperatures will begin to cool Tuesday and Wednesday. Those days will be very pleasant with sunny skies, drier air, and temperatures about 10 degrees below average.

I will keep you up to date on the severe weather potential for the next couple of days.

Kari Hall

We busted on the forecast today! Temperatures were 6 degrees warmer and skies were much brighter, but it’s always good to miss it this way!

Clouds will return later tonight with scattered showers in the forecast for tomorrow. Rain chances should not be too high tomorrow, but our prospects of scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday with strong storms possible by Monday. Cooler temperatures will advect into the region overnight with tomorrow a good ten degrees cooler than today.

A vigorous storm system will bring the threat of severe weather in Texas and Oklahoma Sunday, and regions to the north and east on Monday. Hopefully the strongest dynamics will stay north of us, but with the chance of a squall coming through Acadiana, accompanied by daytime heating ahead of it, will at least bode for strong storms. Just about every severe weather event is dependant on the dynamics aloft and at the surface; quantity and quality don’t mean much unless they’re in sync with one another. Let’s hope that the dynamics don’t get into phase for late Sunday and Monday.

The weekend shouldn’t be a complete washout, so there will be plenty of opportunity to work the gardens and lawns!

Rob Perillo

The forecast remains pretty much on track with showers and storms ending later this evening and partly cloudy and mild conditions on tap for tomorrow. Tomorrow night will be dry, breezy and cooler with temperatures dropping into the lower 50s, perhaps upper 40s in northern areas so your heavier green outfits ‘il do. The clouds will return for Saturday with scattered showers also a possibility. Sunday will be breezy and warm with a good chance of showers and storms developing by late in the day.

Hefty storms will be possible Sunday night into Monday, with severe weather a better possibility during that time frame…stay tuned! After Monday it looks to be cooler and drier Tuesday through Thursday. It could be cooler than our current projections of low-mid 60s for highs and low-mid 40s for lows, but we’ll have to see more consistency in successive computer model runs.

Happy St Patrick’s Day!

Rob Perillo

Clouds will be on the increase over the next 24 hours with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the mix for tomorrow afternoon. There might be some fog issues tonight, but it appears that winds and clouds may be prohibitive factors; we’ll have an update at 10pm. The Storm Prediction Center has part of our area hatched in for the slight risk of severe weather, but all model information that I have been looking at this afternoon suggests that the storms will weaken after they come out of Southeast Texas. Nonetheless, the SPC guys are the experts and there might be some momentum hooking up with the daytime heating to produce an isolated severe pulse during the afternoon hours.

Don’t forget you can track all the Doppler information you can handle on our recently redesigned Power Doppler 3000 radar page. The radars will stay across the region for this weekend with a better chance of the big storms coming by Monday. Spring officially begins Monday afternoon so we may celebrate the Spring Equinox with a bang instead of a whimper.

Rob Perillo

Another sunny day after spectacular weather Tuesday. Highs will edge closer to the 70 degree mark. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, with showers developing Thursday. After a front moves through, it is expected to stall in the Gulf, keeping things cloudy over the weekend. Looks like a slight rain chance will stick around as well.

P.S. Thanks for the Bahamas gift Rob!

Baker

Our good looking weather pattern will continue for Wednesday with the return flow from the Gulf ushering clouds and moisture as we head into Thursday. A series of upper disturbances will move through the region Thursday into the weekend with a stronger system moving in around the Sunday/Monday timeframe. The bottom line for us means we’ll be in an unsettled weather pattern accompanied by the possibility of scattered showers each day, with rain chances bouncing between 20-40%. Best rains should come by Monday with a strong disturbance which should produce healthy storms, and then bring drier air into the region.

Hopefully you have been following the latest information from the Bahamas Weather Conference that I was lucky enough to attend late last week. All the experts were there and had a lot of interesting things to say. We reviewed last year’s hurricane season, where Katrina got most of the press. Wilma was underestimated by South Floridians, while Dennis and especially Rita, got little national attention. I’m working on the Rita issue and hope that there will be more press and attention on Rita’s devastating surge in our region. To the NHC’s credit, they have not gotten to the full post-analysis of Rita, but I had the opportunity to visit with Dr. Will Shaffer, who models the storm surges, and I presented the data I had with him and Max Mayfield, the Director of the NHC.

There was plenty of information coming from Dr. Gray on the 2006 Hurricane Season and there was very healthy global warming or global “luke-warming” debate between Gray and Dr. Coch from Queens College. My wife and I had the opportunity to dine with them both and Sarah Gray, Dr. Gray’s daughter who is working with him from an oceanographic point of view. The company was great, the banter lively, and I couldn’t help but feeling smarter and more enlightened on the issues that face us on a global and local scale.

Dr. Gray and others, continue to make an excellent argument that although we have been warming in recent years, that this is a part of the natural cycles and that water vapor, not carbon dioxide will be the determining factor in our future climate. There is plenty of politics with this issue as well with the political correctness siding with the global warming climatologists. Dr. Gray thinks that we could even head for a cooling cycle and that we will know the answer within the next 30 years. Dr. Coch is not as extreme on his views, but he is predicting that eventually a storm of great magnitude such as Katrina will obliterate a major US city, maybe within our lifetime. Dr. Coch can be seen on many of the science channels out there and was featured in a Weather Channel “Day After Tomorrow” installment.

There are some great interviews available for download through the Bahamas Weather Conference Podcast site. Make sure you see at least what Drs. Gray and Coch, and Max Mayfield have to say.

Rob Perillo

Nice temps today with highs struggling to the 70 degree mark. Looks like the sunshine will make a big return today. Winds will be a bit gusty out of the Northeast. Wednesday a few more clouds with highs near 70. Thursday will bring a front that may have a few showers with it, temps will remain in the lower 70s. The front is expected to stall over the Gulf Coast this weekend, keeping things a bit unsettled and cool, highs as we round out the work week will remain in the 60s.

Baker

After some cloud cover and a few showers today, we should get back to normal for a few days this week as far as our temperatures go. Normal high and low this week is 72/52. We have been running in the lower 80s much of the weekend. Showers will move through with the front around midday, skies will remain cloudy. Some clearing late tonight with breezy and cooler weather for Tuesday.

Baker