There is little change in the forecast thinking. Our weekend weather system is beginning to take shape in the Southwest. This system will take on energy from the Pacific jet stream and will force thunderstorms activity in Texas to develop rapidly early Saturday and then progress toward Acadiana by late Saturday.
I’m sticking with high rain chances late Saturday afternoon/evening into the early overnight period. Preliminary Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts are indicating about a two inch rainfall across the area. There may be a severe weather threat with this system too, but latest model runs are taking the strongest dynamics north of Acadiana. Rule of thumb in the winter here is to never underestimate the power of jet dynamics.
Back into “For what it’s worth departmentâ€: Today’s long range GFS Model is still indicating a large dome of Canadian/Alaskan high pressure to move southward into the northern Rockies about two weeks from now. Therefore, winter in Acadiana may not be over just yet.
Rob Perillo