KATC StormTeam 3 Weather BLOG

Wilma has weakend slightly since this time yesterday. Winds are near 150 which is still a devastating Category 4 hurricane. Yesterday it was confirmed that Wilma has set the record for the lowest pressure measured in the Atlantic Basin. This is the third hurricane to make the top 5 lowest pressures this year. Wilma has knocked Katrina out though from 5th to 6th. Wilma may make landfall along the Yucatan as a strong Cat 4 or even a Cat 5. With a larger eye expected not only will the winds be catastropic, but the storm surge will be even greater with a larger eye. A trough moving across the USA will pick up Wilma and steer her toward the southern tip of Florida Sunday. The track has slowed a bit, but the path still remains almost the same as yesterday.

Baker

10:30 pm
Wilma has weakened a bit in response to an eye wall replacement cycle. When the cycle is completed we may see an even stronger storm than before. It may make a landfall on the Yucatan close to Cancun. If it does the storm will weaken before moving into the Gulf and continue to slowly weaken before making landfall in south Florida. This will be a quick moving storm but may pose another problem to the New England area…We will just have to watch and see.

Kari

After a number of records already set this year, it seems another one may have fallen. Hurricane Wilma with winds of 175mph is now a Category 5 hurricane. The pressure from the National Hurricane Center is listed at 882mb or 26.10 inches. It has dropped 100 mb in just 24 hours. It has gone from winds of 70 to 175 in less than 24 hours. This pressure is lower than Katrina ’05, Rita ’05, Camille ’69, Mitch ’98, Labor Day Hurricane of ’35, and now it has beaten Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. This is a preliminary reading and may be adjusted, but Wilma will definitely be going down into the record books. The track still goes through the Yucatan channel and curves its way toward Florida. It will weaken as it interacts with stronger upper level winds over the Gulf of Mexico, but it could still be close to Cat 3 at landfall Saturday.

Baker

6:25 pm

Wilma became a hurricane at 11:00am. It is still a category one but is expected to strengthen by tomorrow. The track still takes it to southern Florida this weekend.
For us the forecast stays pretty dry with only a slight chance of showers on Friday as a cold front moves through early in the day.
Look forward to a beautiful weekend.

Kari

Wilma is packing her punch in the western Caribbean early this morning and may become a hurricane later today. Still her slow movement will prevent her from moving into the Gulf of Mexico until late this week. High pressure over the Gulf will weaken and a trough building over the west today will move east helping to steer Wilma toward the north then northeast toward Florida over the weekend. Model guidance has picked up on this solution much better than yesterday. This is a typical pattern October storms take when in the western Caribbean. Let’s just hope this really happens. I don’t feel as guilty trying to pass off hurricanes to other states after this season, how about you?

Baker

6:25 pm
Tropical storm Wilma has formed in the western Carribean. Wilma is expected to become a hurricane early this week and move into the Gulf. From there the storm will turn to the NE toward Florida somewhere between Tampa and Miami late this week into early next week.
It is still early in development so there may be changes in the forecast. We will continue to monitor the progress of the storm and provide any breaking changes.

Kari

Can you believe…did you ever think we would be on the last name of the hurricane list? We have now tied the 1933 record season for named storms. Wilma is now a very disorganized tropical storm in the western Caribbean and may drift westward for a couple of days. We may see some influence from a trough over the midwest that may draw Wilma northward through the Yucatan Channel. After that we think the system may intensify into a hurricane and move into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Beyond the 5 day forecast all bets are off, which is why the cone of error basically includes all of the gulf coast from Cancun all the way around to Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

Baker

Update on last post…TD24 has formed. Winds 30mph, moving west @3mph. Coordinates 17.6 NORTH, 78.8
WEST.

Could we be seeing the beginnings of Wilma? A tropical disturbance may be developing near Jamaica. We should know later today whether or not this is a tropical depression or tropical storm. Recon aircraft are currently investigating. Earliest model guidance shows no agreement on a solution. This is fairly typical of the computers since most don’t even have a handle on whether or not there is a system. Also October systems are somewhat rare and these computer model solutions take the late season patterns into consideration. If this becomes Wilma we will have exhausted the entire list of names for the first time in history since names were given to tropical cyclones. We will let you know when we get the news.

Baker

Ditto on Dave’s forecast blog entries. The weather looks great this weekend.

The National Weather Service (NWS) in Lake Charles has done a great job in trying times. Many meteorologists and employees suffered greatly from Hurricane Rita. Roger Erickson, who is in charge of damage assessment, and the rest of of the folks at the NWS have put together a Preliminary Rita Page together.

Rita and Katrina have replaced Audrey and Camille as the benchmark storms. We hope there will be no higher marks on the bench in the future!

Rob Perillo