A sharp cold front will usher in winter-like temperatures back into Acadiana early Tuesday morning. Highs Wednesday may not make it out of the 40s despite sunshine returning by the afternoon. It will be dry in New Orleans too for Tuesday afternoon/evening for the Saints Parade but dress warmly as temperatures will stay in the 40s accompanied by a blustery northwest wind. Temperatures will likely drop to near or below the freezing mark in Acadiana for Wednesday morning so it’s time again to tend to the tender vegetation. Wednesday will be cool, partly sunny and dry, but clouds will be increasing late in the day. It will get interesting Thursday as a quick-developing storm system will likely bring cold rains to the area. This may bring winter weather conditions to the northern part of the state and as close as Central Louisiana at the onset of the precipitation and perhaps when things wind down Thursday night. If the track of the developing surface low goes farther south than is currently forecast we could see a forecast tilted to some sort of wintry mix. Right now though we’ll go with very chilly rains with at least 1-2″ of rain possible…if not maybe a little more. In the wake of Thursday’s system cold and dry weather should follow that will likely carry us through much of the Mardi Gras holiday weekend. Showers could return though for Fat Tuesday…so stay tuned to KATC for that, updates on the weather system tonight, and then for the one on Thursday…as always the forecast is subject to change!
It’s Still Winter!!!
A “Super” Weekend Forecast
After our soaking rains Thursday we are all looking forward to the weekend with drier conditions Friday and cool sunshine this weekend. Lingering cloud cover will stay with us through early Friday evening with skies clearing out Friday night. This weekend promises mostly sunny and cool conditions with highs in the mid-50s accompanied by lows dropping to near 40 Saturday morning and mid-upper 30s for Sunday morning. So it looks good for the local Mardi Gras events this weekend and also for the Super Bowl here and in Florida. In fact, the same frontal trough that brought us rain will will push through the Miami area Friday night into very early Saturday. Sunny skies with highs near 70 (which is cool by Miami standards) is in the forecast for Super Bowl Sunday. Temperatures at game time will be dropping through the 60s and heading for the upper 50s for the Saints winning celebration!
Soaking Rains
Soaking rains will develop across Acadiana overnight with locally heavy downpours likely by Thursday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch for most of Acadiana for the possibility of “run-off” problems. Per the NWS, rainfall totals will generally be inthe 2-4″ range, but isolated spots may see more than that. Fortunately we have had a comparatively dry January after such a wet December so the ground will likely take most of the coming rainfall. But as always, it’s not totally about how much, but what period of time the rain comes in. Upper level dynamics combined with deep precipitable atmospheric moisture will be efficient in producing some heavy downpours. In addition, there will likely be some embedded thunder, especially closer to the coastal parishes. Areas that see repeated heavy downpours and embedded storms will be vulnerable to some street flooding…perhaps something more if rain totals exceed the current projections. The enclosed graphic highlights the rain potential based on our late afternoon model run. Any severe storms generated by this system should stay offshore but they could clip the extreme southeastern part of the state during the afternoon. Offshore, very rough conditions with near gale winds, up to 8-14ft seas and minor coastal flooding will be possible as tides rise to 1-2ft above predicted levels. The rains will taper in most areas to patchy drizzle/mist Thursday evening with lingering cloud cover likely through Friday morning. Cool sun is still with us for the weekend with a milder Monday followed by a moderate cold front late Monday that should keep us quite chilly through mid-next week. The bottom line for the near-term-keep that umbrella handy and be ready for the Gulf of Mexico’s version of another “Nor’easter”.
Quiet Today, Rains Return Thursday
After a cold, gray, rainy, day Monday, we’ll take a break from the rain today and tomorrow. We’ll start with clouds and fog with a bit of drizzle early today, but clouds will slowly break up as we head toward the afternoon. We’ve got a bit of a temperature inversion out there where the heavy, cold air has sank to the bottom of the atmosphere, and a layer of warm air aloft is trapping that cold, dense air. The interaction between the cold and the warm has produced a layer of thin cloud cover. Hopefully with a bit of wind, the atmosphere can mix enough to wash out the inversion and allow some sunshine this afternoon. These “inversion” forecasts during the winter really take a toll on us meteorologists. They can make or break the forecast…unfortunately the latter is usually the result. I’ve stuck with mostly cloudy skies, but if the sun returns, most folks won’t be mad. It’s when I predict sunshine to warm thing up, and the inversion holds…clouds stick around and usually I’ll miss the high temp by a good 5-10 degrees. That’s usually when I hear it from you!
The next storm system believe it or not is the easier part of the forecast today. The upper level pattern across the west will get more active today and should help to generate another surface low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico tomorrow. As this low moves across the Gulf, decent moisture returns are forecast by the models. The low should stay south of the region, so we’ll be on the cool side of this system. Therefore, thunderstorms and any chances for severe weather should remain over the Gulf. Moisture, overriding the cold air should produce clouds and a steady rain most of the day Thursday, with some pockets of heavy rain expected. Most models are in agreement that Acadiana could see 2-3″ of rain starting late Wednesday night and ending around sunrise Friday. Temperatures will remain below normal.
Over the weekend as everyone gets ready for the Super Bowl, we should see more sunshine and quiet weather. Temperatures over the weekend will still be cool for this time of the year. Both days should see 50s for highs and upper 30s and low 40s for lows. Cool, but not unusual for early February.
Heavy rains plagued south Florida yesterday and more rain is expected today, so the Saints may have to adjust their practice schedule again. Improving conditions are expected later this week. Super Bowl Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70s. Kickoff temperature should be around 71 degrees with a light northeast breeze. All bets are off on the forecast once Hurricane Brees enters Sun Life Stadium! Go Saints!
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am!
Weather change???
I received an email recently asking: When the El Nino pattern ends how long before we experience the reverse pattern, La Nino in addition does this mean a return to normal rain and temperatures?
I want to first explain briefly what the two weather patterns are, keep in mind this definition is very brief and I am not an expert on the subject. But do find it interesting and it reminds me of how fragile the line between sustainable weather and destructive weather can be. El Nino is a large body of warmer than normal water in the Eastern Pacific. This area is about 1 1/2 times the size of the United States. Yes, much larger than what is generally understood. It begins when every three to five years the Tropical Trade winds abate and warm water normally found near Australia spreads outward along the equator in the Pacific. Sometimes when the El Nino is strong the warm water reaches as far as Ecuador and Peru.
On the other side La Nina, which is typically stronger during our Winter season, is also much less understood. I always found it easier to have a basic undertanding for El Nino & La Nina, is that having any other weather pattern than normal will bring extremes to what is normal weather for that area.
El Nino increases rain producing clouds for most but also increase the Tropical Trade Winds along the Atlantic Ocean suppressing the formation of Hurricanes.
La Nina weather pattern typically last one to two years. you might remember the 1988 Mid-West Drought. Also the lighter winds are more favorable for Hurricane formation in the Atlantic. 1992 researchers says that a strong El Nino was present. That year in August Hurricane Andrew made landfall first in South Florida then here in Acadiana. Andrew….an A storm in August yes, fewer storms but it only takes one to make the season devastating. Interesting to know also that Hurricane Andrew before making landfall in South Florida almost weakened to just rain. As it moved a little north and out of the hostile winds it strengthened to the record Category 5 storm.
What generally follows El Nino is the return to normal water temperatures and weather pattern. Not always going from La Nina to El Nino. Yes, we do have normal weather patterns. The research is getting much better now so telling one pattern from the other is closer than ever. In the past 20 years the have been just three La Nina’s and seven El Nino weather patterns.
During an El Nino the energy from the warmer water is pressed high in the atmosphere and directed with pressure eastward where it settles over the Tropical Atlantic and the release of energy tends to choke the formation of Tropical Storms which are very weak in the beginning stage.
The Earth is always trying to balance and for that we get the movement of storms and transfers of energy.
Stormy Friday…Followed by a Shot of Winter Temperatures
Only changes to the on-going forecast are that the computer models are trending a little slower on the arrival of rain and storms Friday. A vigorous frontal trough will approach by midday Friday with showers and storms likely anytime from the morning through the early afternoon hours with a shield of rain likely behind the front Friday afternoon into the early evening hours. Rain total projections remain in the 1-2″ range for most of Acadiana Friday. As Dave mentioned earlier, it appears that any severe weather threat will be confined to Texas but there could be some healthy storms running ahead of the cold front in Acadiana but instability remains questionable while upper level winds remain healthy but should be weakening as the system moves over Louisiana. Although our highs on Friday will likely be in the mid-upper 60s temperatures will likely drop sharply by late Friday afternoon into Friday evening with lows Saturday morning dipping into the upper 30s with wind chills likely 10 degrees colder. Winter-time temperatures are likely this weekend with highs not making it out of the 40s Saturday and barely reaching the lower 50s Sunday while lows Sunday and Monday mornings will likely be near the freezing mark. Milder temperatures will return for next week but an active El Nino enhanced sub-tropical jet-stream will likely make for plenty of cloud cover and occasional rain chances starting late Monday and continuing for much of the week.
Storms Thursday Night & Friday
Beautiful weather has been hanging around Acadiana for the early part of the week. Yesterday under full sunshine we were able to climb to 70 degrees. Today we should see a mix of sun and clouds with similar temperatures. Thursday expect clouds and mild weather with temps in the low 70s. Some showers are possible late Thursday but it looks like the big stuff won’t come in until well after it gets dark.
There is an upper level low that is spinning over Baja Mexico this morning. This low will drift across Mexico and into west Texas by tonight. As the low moves across Texas Thursday, low level moisture will be flowing in from the Gulf of Mexico making things more humid. A surface low will develop just ahead of the Baja low and storms will develop along a cold front over the hill country of Texas. After midnight Thursday into Friday morning that front will advance eastward toward Louisiana. The surface low appears to be headed for central Louisiana. Therefore, not only will rain chances be high, but thunderstorms will be possible too. The severe weather threat is fairly low right now, but a couple of isolated storms might become severe with damaging winds being the primary threat. The front and the rain will pass through early Friday and rains should end during the afternoon. Northerly winds will drag cold air back into place, so Friday’s temperatures will fall from the 60s during the morning to the upper 40s by evening. Dry weather will settle in for the weekend, but temperatures will be cool. Saturday and Sunday highs will reach the low 50s and night time lows may drop close to 32.
Are you itching for Spring yet? It’s only natural. The days are getting longer, triggering that feeling. Since the winter solstice, we’ve already added about 1/2 hour of daylight to our day. The evenings have had the most increase, but now the mornings are starting to add daylight. Sunrise is back to 7am now, and sunset is approaching 6pm. By the end of February we’ll have an extra 1/2 hour of daylight added to the morning and the evening. Daylight Saving Time returns March 14th this year!
StormTeam3 Meteorologist Dave Baker
Good Morning Acadiana-Weekdays 5-7am
Wet Finish to the Week…Weekend Chill
After another nice day Wednesday Acadiana will see more clouds and breezy conditions for Thursday with showers and storms likely by Friday morning. High pressure edging to the east mid-week will allow for a mild return flow from the Gulf. This should allow for milder temperatures Wednesday night with the chance of some fog formation by Thursday morning. A storm system building over Texas Thursday will make for breezy and rather warm conditions for Acadiana. Highs Thursday should top out in the mid-70s. It appears that our rain chances will stay slight at best Thursday, but rain and storms will be building eastward into Acadiana by Friday morning. This storm system should be a national headline-maker with hefty snow and ice on the northern flank and the threat of severe weather farther south across the Texas Hill Country. Any severe weather dynamics with this storm system should weaken as the area of surface low pressure moves into the Bayou State Friday…but we’ll keep an eye on things just in case. The storms could be on the hefty side. As a result I would expect rain totals to be in the one to two range for most of the area. Following Friday’s wet weather a shot of winter-like temperatures will return Friday night through the weekend. Temperatures should drop sharply Friday afternoon/evening with highs suppressed to near 50 Saturday and Sunday under mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows may drop into the lower 30s with a light freeze/frost likely for Sunday morning. Next week looks rather unsettled with an active sub-tropical jet overhead keeping plenty of clouds and occasional rain in the forecast Monday through at least Wednesday.
Changes on the Way Later This Week
Our seasonably pleasant weather will continue through Tuesday and part of Wednesday but a storm system promises wet weather forAcadiana later this week and a chill for the weekend. High pressure will slide just to our east Tuesday allowing for sunny and mild conditions. A light return flow from the Gulf will initiate Tuesday evening allowing for the possibility of some patchy fog by Wednesday morning. Mostly cloudy skies will develop for Wednesday ahead of a vigorous/progressive storm system. Our temperatures will likely rise into the upper 60s Wednesday and should be in the low-mid 70s with breezy conditions under mostly cloudy skies for Thursday. Showers and storms will develop late Thursday and should arrive here Thursday night with lingering cold rain persisting through the first part of Friday. Rain totals will be in the neighborhood of about an inch to possibly two. Temperatures will drop from the 70s Thursday into the lower 50s Friday. A dry winter chill will return to Acadiana this weekend with highs confined to the low-mid 50s while lows drop into the 30s. A light freeze/frosty conditions will be quite possible by Sunday morning.
Finishing the Week in Fine Fashion-Weekend Changes
Our gorgeous spring-like weather will continue for our Friday with lots of sunshine. Highs will likely be in the low-mid 70s so it will be a little cooler as compared to the upper 70s we saw Thursday. The next weather-maker will approach Acadiana Saturday allowing for the possibility of fog to develop Friday night with southerly winds ushering in Gulf moisture and higher dew points. Like Wednesday’s weather system there will be a fairly good chance of scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. There may be a slight severe weather risk but per today’s models phasing of any severe weather parameters should occur well to our north, but once again upper level wind profiles may be condusive for and isolated severe storm or two so we’ll keep on eye on it just in 
case. Highs Saturday should stay in the balmy low-mid 70s. Skies should become partly to mostly sunny Sunday with cooler highs topping out in the mid-60s. A secondary surge of chilly air should move in for early next week bringing our highs down into the mid-upper 50s while lows dip into the mid-30s. Skies should stay mostly sunny Monday through Wednesday of next week with showers and storms returning for Thursday and perhaps colder over-running rains for Friday. The storm system late next week could bring freezing (or near freezing) night-time temperatures back to the area for next weekend.